As always, elections are about variables so myriad as to make polling effective only in trend for some elections, and entirely unreliable in others. It appears to me this 2008 election however, is about a crisis in confidence toward authority and the presidential winner will be the person having shown the most credible judgement.
Crisis in confidence.
Consumer confidence just reached an all time low. What began as a crisis in confidence toward U.S. presidents during the LBJ and Nixon administrations, has reached unparalleled proportions in the George W. Bush administration. And in between, there have been all manner of assaults upon the confidence of the American people toward authority, such as:
The American people, while not recalling this specific litany of historical crises in the U.S. and world, are nonetheless responding to their cumulative effect. The Republican government, which was to bring America fiscal sanity, smaller and lower cost government, and a reduction in corruption of values, politics, legislation, and policy, disappointed the American on all these fronts. There is a crisis in confidence toward authority figures. It appears in the polls as less than a 65% favorable polling toward Obama, a dramatic and rapid drop in approval of Sarah Palin as McCain's VP choice, even amongst segments of Republicans, and serious doubts regarding the judgement of the veteran Senator and war hero, John McCain.
Approval ratings for Congress are near all time historical lows. The American people have lost a great deal of faith in their government and those elected to run it. Who can blame them? Yet, the American sense of hope for the future is a quality not easily diminished nor snuffed. A majority of American voters and the Electoral College will select a president in four days, in whom they will again invest their trust and hope for a better future. There can be little doubt that a measurable portion of this hope and trust comes from voters under 30, who are intrinsically hopeful and trusting, and they may well prove to be the numbers needed to put Barack Obama into the White House.
Whether Obama or McCain wins, however, there are challenges facing our nation, which if ignored any longer, will spell the ruination of a hopeful and confident America going forward. In September of 2003, I wrote at WatchBlog:
The United States National debt, now approaching 7 trillion dollars, will be in the 10 to 12 trillion dollar range in 10 to 12 years.and:
The Perfect Storm, was partly about an historical convergence of a hurricane, a cold front, and a low pressure center, if memory serves, which created a storm of such magnitude that it could not be entered and survived by normal vessels. Such a storm is growing on the economic front and the convergence of three main trends will occur in the next 8 to 12 years resulting in a wave of devastation across the American economy and possibly the world economy. The three trends are growing U.S. national debt, the retirement of the baby boom generation, and the incredible growth of foreign economies.I confess to being wrong about it taking until 2013 to 2015 to arrive at 10 trillion dollars of national debt. But, over the years since 2003, I have, in many other articles here, updated the debt projections in light of actions of the Bush Administration and Congress to reflect this shortening of the calendar.
Standing before the next president is an additional 44 Trillion Dollars of debt in the form of unfunded mandates via the Social Security and Medicare/Medicaid programs. There are at least two ways to deal with it, the simple minded stupid way, and the vastly more difficult and challenging intelligent way.
The simple way, is to privatize these programs and let those who can't afford to self-insure their health care and retirement, suffer and die of poverty in the 10's of millions, which easily could sow the seeds of civil war or revolution in this country, costing far, far more than is saved. It is incomprehensible that anyone today could believe that so much suffering by the parents of the shrinking middle class would not result in a revolt after witnessing their parents and grandparents suffer the pain and misery of poverty, having paid a portion of their earnings throughout their lives to the government to insure against such poverty.
I wish I could say the intelligent but challenging way is the way of Obama or McCain, but, we simply don't have enough information from them to make that determination. This way however, does incorporate Obama's single payer health insurance plan. But, it must go much further. And there are no guarantees that a more intelligent threading of the needle on this issue will be successful. But, to not even try, will spell the economic and political collapse of our nation within 30 years.
The intelligent way includes:
Crisis in Judgement
Of course, all of these ideas and solutions are meaningless, unless increasing numbers of voters hold their own representatives accountable for enacting such solutions. Reelecting incumbents who fail to enact such solutions, for whatever reasons of incompetence, corruption by lobbyists and campaign donors, or ideology, will only compound the current looming crises into actual crises in coming years. And that means the voters must hold our next president to the same standard, making them a one term president if in their first 4 years they are not out in front using the bully pulpit to push the Congress toward these tough solutions which will be fought intensely by corporate and wealthy special interests.
America's future was never intended to belong to the wealthy special interests. Our founders overthrew the King and his aristocracy to insure that America's future belonged to all Americans. It is time Americans fulfilled that great promise and exercised its democratic process of, by, and for the people. Vote!
People in power will use that power to keep themselves in power. The vote is unnecessary for those in power to remain in power. Our founders understood this about King George. It is time Americans exercised their vote for the purpose it was intended, to remove politicians from office when it appears they are serving their own interests instead of the people's. Vote Out Incumbents Democracy is working to make the latter a reality, for this election, and those to come. Do your part, and vote to replace at least one ineffective, incompetent, or corrupt incumbent politician in this election.