November 4, 2008

Election Day: Blues & Celebration

As early as 8PM this evening, we may have clear indications as to who our next president may be. Be that as it may, there are an enormous number of other important races and candidates to be determined from the Eastern most point of Maine to the Western most tip of Hawaii. For 10's of millions of Americans today, a case of the blues will try to settle in because their horse didn't cross the finish line in first place. But, this election is as much about process as results. And the process, though in desperate need of reform, continues to work.

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October 21, 2008

Anti-incumbent Sentiment Opens Door of Opportunity

The details in some of the polls now show 12% of Republicans intending to vote for Barack Obama. This reflects an anti-incumbent target bigger than individual incumbents, aimed selectively at the Republican Party itself. Given Republican control of the House of Representatives from 1995 to 2007, where all spending and tax law finds its beginning, and control of the Senate from 2001 to 2007, in addition to a Republican President from 2001 to the present, and given the dire economic condition of the country and world economy today, it is no great surprise that voters would focus anti-incumbent sentiment on the Republican Party and its incumbents primarily.

Ordinarily, this would not be considered a healthy anti-incumbent movement, but yet another round of musical chairs between the duopoly parties. One can logically argue that this switching of parties does not even reflect an anti-incumbent strategy, or movement. But, as with many logical arguments, that conclusion may prove to be false, if one or more of the premises is proven false. An explanation is in order.

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August 29, 2008

Congress ratings in the toilet!

Congress' disapproval ratings now in the mid to high 70% range. But who thinks 70% of Congressional incumbents will be unelected this November? (See graphs below). No one! What is this incredible disconnect all about?

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