BJP has advantage in Uttar Pradesh election race – The Diplomat
Voting in the seven-stage election to the Uttar Pradesh state assembly was halfway through earlier this week, with voting for 201 assembly seats from all 403 states complete.
At a campaign rally in Hardoi in Uttar Pradesh, Prime Minister Narendra Modi urged people to vote for his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) if they wanted to keep “terrorism at bay”. Modi, who is the BJP’s star activist, described opposition parties, including the main challenger, the Samajwadi Party (SP), as “terrorist sympathizers”. A victory in this state election is essential for Modi and the ruling BJP, in their bid to return to power for the third consecutive time in the 2024 general election.
With three phases remaining in the seven-phase election, Modi and Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath are openly resorting to jingoism, religious polarization, threats and vilification of minorities and Muslims to win votes in this election. Modi even alluded to the recent conviction and death sentence handed down to 38 members of the Indian Mujahideen and the banned Islamic Student Movement of India for the serial bombings in the city of Ahmedabad in 2008, and said the SP’s silence on the verdict was telling.
Modi arbitrarily described the PS polling symbol, the cycle, as “a terrorist vehicle”, since many bombs had been planted on cycles.
An angry SP leader and former chief minister, Akhilesh Yadav, hit back, accusing Modi of “insulting the common man’s vehicle and thus insulting the common man of India”. Yadav said that insult would be avenged with the poll’s verdict. Incidentally, the SP was formed and got its sounding symbol, the cycle, in 1992.
Modi and the BJP have consistently raised non-existent questions and controversies to distract voters from serious issues like unemployment, farmer unrest, inflation and atrocities against Dalits. There is no doubt that Yogi Adityanath’s government is fighting the takeover on multiple fronts in the state, but it is banking on its tried and true formula of religious polarization – cementing the Hindu majority vote by defaming Muslims – and claiming that the national security “can only be ensured by a strongman like Modi”, to win a second term.
In the last National Assembly election in 2017, the BJP won an unprecedented landslide victory, winning 312 seats alone. Along with his allies, he landed a mammoth tally of 325 seats in the 403-seat assembly.
This time around, analysts and observers, including BJP party members themselves, agree that there is no BJP wave. BJP insiders admit there will be significant losses, but they believe they will end up winning by a reduced margin. The BJP needs 202 seats to win the polls.
SP insiders dismiss BJP claims as hollow, pointing to deep voter discontent, especially among farmers in western Uttar Pradesh, who were at the forefront of the year-long unrest against Modi’s enactment of controversial farm laws. Over 700 farmers died in the unrest. The protests succeeded in forcing the Modi to repeal the laws.
Western Uttar Pradesh, which voted in the first phase of the election, is the stronghold of Jat farmers who have traditionally pledged allegiance to their caste and voted for the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD). This time, the RLD is allied with the SP and hopes to reap the fruits of the agrarian unrest.
In 2017, the BJP won 53 out of 58 seats in western Uttar Pradesh.
One of the critical factors behind the BJP’s victory in this region in 2017 was the rift between Muslims and (Hindus) Jats, a consequence of the Hindu-Muslim riots in Muzaffarnagar in 2013. This time, the bond between Muslims and Jats , which gained strength in the farmers’ protests, is likely to see Muslim voters throwing their weight behind the SP-RLD grouping.
A split in Muslim votes due to the entry of Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM into the fray seems unlikely. The BJP’s extreme communal rhetoric in the elections has prompted Muslims to throw their full support behind the party with the best chance of defeating the BJP – ie the SP.
Over the past five years, the governance of Yogi Adityanath has been marked by the authoritarianism of landlord Thakurs, an upper caste to which Adityanath belongs. Lower castes and Dalits have borne the brunt of rising violence against women. The horrific gang rape and murder of a Dalit girl in Hathras in 2020 sent shock waves across the country as authorities attempted to burn the victim’s body at night to cover up the incident.
In 2017, the BJP benefited from a split in Dalit votes, with a significant portion of Dalits gravitating towards the BJP. This time around, Dalit voters are expected to stand firmly with the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), with some voting for Congress. Priyanka Gandhi Vadra of Congress has weaved together the entire Congressional campaign on women’s empowerment and attacked the Yogi government for its poor record on women’s safety.
However, Congress’ depletion – it only won seven seats in 2017 – indicates that the party is still not a major threat to the BJP.
Incidents like the one in Lakhimpur Kheri, where Ashish Mishra, the son of a BJP minister in the Modi government, drove protesting farmers in his vehicle, angered the masses. Mishra was only arrested after public outcry against Adityanath’s government, but he is now free on bail. The atrocities against the Dalits have also shaken the appeal of the Yogi government among the masses.
The SP also hopes to renew its grip on areas of “Yadav country”, which includes Etawah, Mainpuri and Etah. The BJP won 23 out of 29 seats in the Yadav stronghold in 2017. The BJP has spread fear here by reminding people of the goondagardi (anarchy) during previous terms of SP rule.
The opposition has punched holes in BJP’s claims that people are happy with their “dual engine” government (BJP ruling center and state) by drawing attention to its mishandling of the coronavirus pandemic. COVID-19 and the alarming level of unemployment in the state.
However, some are impressed with the infrastructure development in the state. First voter Sachin Kumar (22) from Allahabad said Modi “is synonymous with development” and that “the number of new projects he has unveiled will bring progress to the region”. A final-year commerce student, Kumar hopes to join a private bank. His father runs a paan (betel leaf) shop near Rambagh station. Kumar says he is not concerned about issues like unemployment and religious polarization because he has “no desire to get a government job”. Modi’s personal charisma still attracts voters. The poor performance of the state government does not seem to matter.
The cow protection policy of the Uttar Pradesh government in pursuit of its Hindutva program has led to a serious problem of crop destruction by wandering cattle. The problem is so serious that Modi had to reassure voters that he would solve the problem once elected to power. Whether these grievances are strong enough to translate into votes against the government remains to be seen.
Uttar Pradesh has a habit of not giving a chief minister two successive terms. Will this jinx be broken? Will the anti-incumbent sentiment against the Adityanath government only impact his margin of victory and not his victory? This will not be known until March 10, when the votes are counted.