In the electoral history of the BJP since its establishment in 1980, the results of 2022 must be considered as its third decisive moment, the other two being the parliamentary elections of 1989 when it obtained 85 seats against only two in 1984 and the elections national elections in 2014 when the party single-handedly won a majority. The BJP’s victory in recent state elections, particularly in India’s most populous state, not only laid the electoral foundations for Modi to serve as prime minister for a third term in 2024, but cemented Hindutva politics almost beyond redemption. During the 1990s, when caste-based parties such as the SP and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) began to expand their social bases in the UP and undermine the BJP’s Hindutva politics, some scholars argued that interpreted as a deepening of democracy. Three decades later, as the latest results have confirmed, what is evident is a shift in electoral trends from deepening democracy to deepening Hindutva.

Among the results of this year’s assembly polls, the Congress party’s ousting from power in Punjab was undoubtedly attributable to an anti-incumbent vote. The same cannot be said for the BJP which retained power in UP. Reason: The BJP received almost 42% of polled votes this time, a 2% increase from its 39.6% share in 2017. So all votes that veered over five years were more than offset by the vote gains made by the ruling party in Chance Now. However, there were many anecdotal accounts of voters sharing their grievances against the Yogi UP government. The party’s vote gain did not increase its seats in the UP assembly. The BJP won 255 seats this time, a reduction from 312 in 2017. That this happened despite its increased vote share could be attributed to the complexities of converting votes into seats caused by our single-member system at a ride in a fierce multifaceted competition at the riding level. What appears here as an anomaly is indeed an electoral reality in Indian multiparty elections. India’s first-past-the-post electoral system also explains the disproportionately poor seat conversion of the BSP, which now has only one seat in the UP assembly despite winning 12.8 percent. voices ; while in 1993 the same party won 67 seats with a share of 11.2%. In other words, the BSP once had 66 more seats, even with a lower vote share. The result this time in terms of seats could have been discouraging for the BJP had there been a more effective opposition unit, which could have reduced its seat conversion rate due to more direct electoral contests at the level of the BJP. constituencies, and the party might even have lost power if at least the BSP and the Congress had chosen to align themselves with Samajwadi gathbandhan.

Regardless of the results, most major UP parties campaigned with great enthusiasm, as evidenced by the number of rallies they held. Congress’ Priyanka Gandhi held 209 rallies/roadshows, more than any other party held in this election, while BSP leader Mayawati addressed only 20. BJP’s Yogi Adityanath addressed 203 rallies, compared to Akhilesh’s 131 Yadav from SP. Modi’s campaign also made a difference. However, if we juxtapose the data on rallies with the seats won by these parties, it appears that there is no direct relationship between the number of rallies/roadshows organized by a party and the number of seats won. In other words, although these events create a spectacle, their impact on the results may be smaller than many realize.

It depends on the capacity of a party to convert support into seats and it depends on the organization of the party. Commentary on the BJP’s success in 2022 has not given enough credit to the detail of its vote solicitation mechanism, an operational aspect that gives it an edge. A remarkable aspect of the BJP’s organizational transformation in recent years is its ability to win elections despite some anti-incumbents, and the way it takes control of the narrative that drives voting decisions.

Shaikh Mujibur Rehman teaches at Jamia Millia Islamia and is the author of the forthcoming book ‘Shikwa-e-Hind: The Political Future of Indian Muslims’