Indian voters will go to the polls from February 10 for elections in five states, including Uttar Pradesh, the most populous in the country. The results will be announced on March 10 and will have significant implications for Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s agenda and the 2024 general elections. We spoke to Eurasia Group expert Diwakar Jhurani to get a better idea of ​​what he is talking about. must be monitored.

What are the challenges for Modi?

About 280 million Indians will vote to elect five state governments in February and March. Modi’s Bhartiya Janata party currently rules in all but one of these countries, so the elections will test Modi’s ability to secure votes for state leaders who are not as popular as him.

Elections in Uttar Pradesh — which accounts for 15% of seats in the national parliament — are the most important for Modi. Although the Prime Minister hails from the state of Gujarat, he represents Uttar Pradesh in parliament. The BJP won a landslide victory (306 out of 403 seats in the state legislature) in 2017 thanks to Modi’s popularity and a divided opposition, and the party capitalized on that victory by nominating a polarizing figure, Yogi Adityanath , as Chief Minister. This year, Modi has thrown his weight behind Yogi’s re-election and a platform focused on economic development, jobs and the rule of law in the state.

Other states holding elections are Punjab, Goa, Manipur and Uttarakhand. All but Punjab currently have BJP-led governments. Although these are less important politically than Uttar Pradesh, the BJP will want to retain control of them to maintain national dominance – 19 of the 31 Indian states and union territories that vote for state governments are currently ruled by the BJP and its partners.

What are the main issues of these elections?

Local concerns such as access to basic public goods and services, job creation, infrastructure and quality of governance are most important in national elections. Historical data suggests that Indian voters tend to punish incumbents for dissatisfaction with these issues. With the BJP in power in four of the five states holding elections, opposition parties are optimistic about their chances.

The BJP, however, touts the success of social assistance programs such as funding toilets, affordable housing and cooking gas. It also boasts that its handling of the pandemic has been more effective than that of Western countries. And Modi is rolling out his “dual engine” slogan, saying that BJP governments at the national and state levels will double the speed of development.

How will the result affect Modi and national politics?

These upcoming state-level contests will set the tone for the next two years before the 2024 general election. Electoral feedback is important to Modi’s style of governance. A strong performance by the BJP – especially in Uttar Pradesh – would give it the momentum it needs to build on an economic agenda of opening markets, liberalizing trade and strengthening institutions. The more confident he feels, the more he will focus on these priorities. A weak performance, particularly in Uttar Pradesh, would encourage Modi to turn to populism and divisive identity politics to rally his base.

In Uttar Pradesh, most opinion polls are predicting a BJP victory, but the party is likely to lose a few seats after winning 76% of the total in 2017. Anything short of a BJP majority (ensuring a BJP Chief Minister) would be a major setback for Modi.

However, state election results will not necessarily be a leading indicator of Modi’s performance in 2024. Many voters who vote for regional parties in state elections usually end up voting for Modi’s BJP in state elections. national elections. But state election patterns will help understand how Modi is preparing for 2024 and give clues about his program in the months to come.

What are the biggest longer-term threats to BJP dominance?

The strength of the party rests on calls for nationalism and religious identity and on promises of competent governance delivered by a leader (Modi) perceived as committed and incorruptible. Factors that influenced elections in the past, such as inflation, economic stagnation and even unemployment, have become less important at the national level. Yet the BJP formula does not always work at the state level and credible regional leaders have shown themselves capable of beating the BJP in elections held in states like West Bengal, Rajasthan or Delhi.

So, political alliances that challenge the BJP on at least two of the three elements of its formula and have a credible face domestically can give it a hard time. Another flaw in the BJP’s armor is the lack of good candidates to succeed Modi. Therefore, a face of the opposition that appears as a more natural successor to Modi than someone from the BJP may pose a threat to the BJP once Modi approaches mid-term retirement.