Modi 2.0: the electoral march of the BJP since its triumph Lok Sabha 2019 | India News
The BJP’s strategy of betting on a presidential-style campaign in the United States with Prime Minister Modi as his poster paid him rich political dividends. The party ended up winning 303 of Lok Sabha’s 543 seats and emerged as an unstoppable force.
As the Modi government wraps up two years of its second term, let’s see if the momentum for Lok Sabha’s triumph continued in the national elections that followed.
Well, the numbers don’t quite paint a rosy – or shall we say saffron – picture for BJP.
Since the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, 10 states or Union territories have gone to the polls.
Of these, the BJP only managed to win four assembly elections – that too with the help of its allies.
2019: Double whammy
Just months after its triumph in the general elections, the BJP suffered a double electoral blow by losing power in both Jharkhand and Maharashtra.
A strong anti-outgoing wave against the dispensation led by Raghubar Das has cost the BJP dearly in Jharkhand.
In Maharashtra, the BJP emerged as the largest party but failed to retain power as its ally Shiv Sena broke ranks with the NDA and formed government with the NCP and Congress.
In Haryana, the party’s performance fell, but he managed to form the government after forging a new post-election alliance with Dushyant Chautala’s Jannayak Janta Party (JPP).
2020: Mixed bag
The year started with the BJP putting on a dismal spectacle in Delhi, just weeks before the Covid pandemic hit the whole country.
The Saffron party failed to wrest the national capital from the ruling Aam Aadmi party and only experienced a consolation increase in its share of the seat: from 3 to 8.
But later that year, a narrow victory in Bihar with his ally Nitish Kumar came like a bullet in the arm for the saffron festival.
The elections – the first big ballots to be held amid the Covid pandemic – have helped the BJP mark its authority in the key state where alliances play a big role.
He not only managed to overtake the combined RJD-Congress led by Tejashwi Yadav, but also became the main partner of Bihar NDA after winning more seats than ally JD (U). However, keeping his pre-election promise, he allowed Nitish Kumar to continue as chief minister.
Learn more about the second anniversary of Modi govt 2.0:
2021: Mamata breaks BJP ‘Bengal’s dreams
For the BJP, 2021 started on a disappointing political note as Mamata Banerjee led her Trinamool Congress party to a historic victory in West Bengal.
Despite a raging pandemic, the BJP and TMC fought tooth and nail to win the high-stakes battle in West Bengal.
In the end, even a massive gain of 74 seats could not compensate for the failure of the BJP to overthrow the Trinamool in Bengal.
Despite investing a great deal of time and political resources in Bengal, the BJP failed to secure even half of the 200 seats it had claimed to win in the run-up to elections.
The saving grace for the BJP came in the form of two victories in Assam and Pondicherry.
In Assam, the BJP did well to stay in power despite the anti-exit factor and the loss of allies. In Pondicherry, the BJP-AINRC alliance helped thwart the Congress-DMK challenge of forming the new government.
In the south, the BJP managed to win 4 seats in Tamil Nadu but its alliance with AIADMK lost to the combined DMK-Congress.
In Kerala, the party was reduced to zero because it failed to keep its only seat.
Lok Sabha vs Assembly elections: a worrying trend?
Aside from a post-2019 losing streak, the BJP is seeing a worrying trend as it heads into future election battles.
In every assembly poll since the Modi 2.0 government took power, the BJP has witnessed a drop in its share of the vote from what it got in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. .
Take the polls recently concluded in West Bengal. The party failed to consolidate the massive gains it made in the Lok Sabha election and witnessed a decline of 2.12 percentage points.
The trend indicates that the party has failed to replicate its national performance in some assembly elections.
It also highlights the fact that over-reliance on Narendra Modi hasn’t always worked well for the party, especially in states with strong regional leaders.