Last week, the government announced two major initiatives. The first was to create 10 lakh (1 million) government jobs to absorb the youth. The second was the Agnipath program aimed at creating a younger, more tech-savvy fighting force. Both programs reflect the government’s growing concern about two very important issues: the level of male unemployment in urban areas and the inability of the private sector to create jobs (not jobs) for large numbers of young men and women who leave the education system each year. .

According to the government’s own data, published as the Periodic Labor Force Survey (PLFS), unemployment among young graduates is worrying. The labor force participation rate from January to March 2022 was 38.2%, compared to 38.4% in the same period last year. Even if you exclude women’s participation (a paltry 17.3%) and only consider men entering the workforce, that number was 57% – meaning that 43% of young men had no no regular income.

The last decade has seen a drastic reduction in the capacity of the non-agricultural sector – construction, industry, MSMEs – to absorb school and college leavers. India’s economy has seen massive disruption over the past decade, starting with demonetization, followed by GST, then pandemic and severe lockdowns. The greatest distress has been in the MSME sector, and this has had a ripple effect on employment. Margins are squeezed, as are wages. Jobs are precarious and the gig economy can only accommodate a limited number.

The Narendra Modi government, seeking its third term, will face a huge anti-incumbent problem. And the central question of the 2024 elections will probably concern employment. While it is up to the opposition to capitalize on the sense of fear of prolonged youth unemployment, the bigger challenge is for the Modi government to be seen as doing something to address the jobs problem. A growing income divide is evident, as is unrest among young people. In the end, unless India can offer hope for a better future for people and their families, at the individual level, it will be chaos.

But the perils of over-hiring by the state are increased payrolls, benefits and pensions. And what is strange is that while the government sought to increase government jobs – and therefore salaries and pension costs – for the center and the states through its instruction of a million government jobs; it was exactly the opposite for the armed forces. Agnipath is considering a service tour concept, where young people sign up for a four-year contract. At the end of the contract, only 25% will be absorbed into permanent jobs – and the remaining 75% will receive a lump sum of around Rs 12 lakhs to work their way through life. It is hoped that this scheme will not only save the armed forces from huge pension bills but also enable them to have a younger fighting force.

While the first program was received with relative silence, except for a few voices asking how you would prepare those 1 million for careers, and where they will be absorbed, the Agnipath program was met with turmoil and violence. We have all seen images of burning trains across the country and young men protesting angrily and throwing stones.

What is staggering is the government’s unpreparedness for the youth response. In a country where a government job is an aspiration, you just told a whole bunch of army aspirants that their hope of a permanent job is on a lottery for four years. Where one in four young jawan will be integrated into the army, and the rest – despite a golden handshake – will be left at the mercy of the labor market. How could advisers and decision-makers be so removed from citizens, their hopes, fears and aspirations, that they don’t know how people will react?

Since the Agnipath program was announced – and the protests began – there have been at least half a dozen amendments. These include relaxation of the upper age limit, 10% reservation in the State Police and Central Armed Police Force, 10% reservation in the MoD, and other benefits. It is amazing that the government did not have, on a policy document that had been under discussion for at least 2 years, a more systematic communication program – informing young people and other key stakeholders of the benefits of this. Whether it’s the Farm Bills or the Agnipath Plan, the government has not only been unable to garner support from key stakeholders for key reforms, it has managed to annoy the very community it claims it wants. to help.

There’s a problem with living in an echo chamber. You think the world thinks exactly like you, and therefore the need to reach a consensus is not necessary. Unfortunately, keeping stakeholders on board is vital. Often, at the political level, all major institutionalized stakeholders are consulted – military experts, universities, think tanks, – but the most impacted stakeholder community is left out. Unless the government gives young people who are desperately looking for jobs the confidence that this program will provide them with a better future, it will be an uphill battle. And this should have been done before announcing the diet.

(The writer works at the intersection of digital content, technology and audiences. She is a writer, columnist, visiting professor and filmmaker. She tweets at @calamur)