Republicans gain ground in midterm elections as Biden’s approval plummets: poll
A a poll suggests Republicans are gaining ground over Democrats after a tough summer just weeks before the midterm elections.
The Democrats’ advantage over the GOP has continued to decline and now hovers around the margin of error in a recent Policy/Morning Consult survey. Registered voters polled favor Democrats over Republicans by 45% to 43%, the Democrats’ lead down 2 points from a previous poll by the group.
Some 12% of respondents said they were unsure or had no opinion on which party they wanted to win in the midterm elections. The poll surveyed 2,005 registered voters from September 23-25 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.
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Just 41% of voters polled approved of President Joe Biden’s performance in office, down from 46% in the group’s previous poll, indicating Americans’ mood for Biden is souring in the home stretch of the cycle. midterm election.
A slew of other polls also indicated Republicans are gaining ground. The GOP now has a 0.4-point advantage over Democrats in generic congressional polls, according to the latest RealClearPolicies survey aggregate. The GOP has been on an upward trend in the polls over the past few weeks.
By early summer, Republicans had been heavily favored in the midterm elections. But talk of a red wave crashed towards the end of the summer in reaction to the reversal of Roe vs. Wade took hold and the Democrats won a few legislative victories.
FiveThirtyEight and other forecasters have since released projections that favor the Democrats winning the Senate while still viewing Republicans as the most likely to win the House.
But now the polls have shifted again in favor of the GOP, indicating the party may have some momentum. A string of recent polls show tight races in Georgia, Wisconsin, Ohio and elsewhere that could determine the balance of power in the Senate 50-50.
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Some experts have warned that the polls could be skewed. For instance, New York Times Election analyst Nate Cohn recently wrote an article claiming that there are similarities between recent polls and past polls that overestimated Democrats. Ari Fleischer, a former White House press secretary in the Bush administration, recently warned that the polls depend too much on registered voters.
“Registered voters don’t vote. Voters do vote. And so you have to move on to probable voters. Likely voters always vote more Republican than registered voters. And right now the media is still using too large a pool of people called voters registrants,” Fleischer told Fox News’ Laura Ingraham.