Few people realize the significance of May 31, 2022. However, when it comes to Indian politics, the significance of the date cannot be stressed enough. It is on this date that the current term of the BJP becomes independent India’s longest stay without a Congress government in charge. Prior to the current BJP term, the longest stay without a ruling Congress government in India was the period between the governments of PV Narasimha Rao and Manmohan Singh. This period (from May 17, 1996 to May 21, 2004) lasted 2927 days. For Narendra Modi, who took office as Prime Minister on May 26, 2014, May 31, 2022 will be the 2928th day in office.

The current BJP tenure differs in many ways from the previous record-holding period. The most visible difference is that the period saw three Prime Ministers – Atal Bihari Vajpayee, HD Deve Gowda and IK Gujral. The period began with Vajpayee’s thirteen-day term as prime minister, which ended abruptly when he was unable to prove his majority. This was followed by the prime ministerships of Gowda and Gujral, which lasted less than a year each. Both Gowda and Gujral were backed by the Congress Party, which had given outside support to keep the BJP out of power. In the ensuing elections, after Congress ended Gujral’s government, Vajpayee was able to return as prime minister by tinkering with a post-election coalition. However, his government also collapsed within a year and he was forced to face the electorate again. This time, the pre-election BJP coalition has almost gone halfway on its own. The coalition government with Vajpayee at the helm lasted his entire term.

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Besides the current period with only one Prime Minister, it is also striking that the BJP won simple majorities in the general elections of 2014 and 2019. Both versions of the Modi government have included ministers belonging to partners in the pre-election alliance, but in terms of number of seats, the BJP achieved and maintained a parliamentary majority on its own. As many analysts noted in 2014, the Modi-led BJP was the first party to secure a parliamentary majority after the Congress led by Rajiv Gandhi in 1985, ending the “coalition era” and the phenomenon of external support, which lasted almost three decades. The alternative to a Congress government this time is not an expedient and inelegant merger of haphazard political entities, but an all-India party with a decisive mandate. Moreover, the mandate will last at least another two years.

Since 2014, the BJP has only gone from strength to strength, gaining a foothold in different parts of the country. Derogatorily called cowbelt party or brahmin-bania party in the past, it continues to innovate both regionally and socially. Since 2014, in addition to its traditional strongholds, the party has become the essential political option in Haryana, Maharashtra and the North East. It has also made substantial inroads in Bengal, Odisha and Telangana. Socially, it has become the go-to holiday for many communities, especially CBOs, largely due to the effective delivery of social assistance and the equally effective mobilization of beneficiaries. According to many observers, he is on the way to creating a united Hindu electoral bloc. In many parts of the country, he has built an organization that is often described as an election-winning machine. Notably, however, the party has been more or less immune to anti-incumbency. Despite the brutal second wave of the pandemic and its many repercussions, the party was able to bounce back in a year, obtaining historic mandates in Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur. The opposition remains divided and exhausted.

The condition of the Congress Party, which is still widely seen as the main opposition party, is relevant in the context of longer stays outside Congress. Since 2014, the Congress Party has been unable to cross the threshold of sixty seats in the Lok Sabha. Prior to 2014, his tally had never dipped below three digits. Today, the party has been wiped out in most parts of the country. It has only two state governments, and both will face the electorate before the 2024 general election. State Congress has not been re-elected since 2009. Congress is the only opposition party considered to have an all-India organizational presence, but it faces a very realistic prospect of contesting the next general election without a single government of state to his credit.

Just as the 2009 elections were the last time the Congress Party crossed the three-digit threshold in Parliament, the year 1985 was the last time the Congress Party won a simple majority in Parliament. He was never able to reproduce it afterwards. Interestingly, the Congress governments before and after the Vajpayee-Gowda-Gujral period, those of Narasimha Rao and Manmohan Singh, were coalition governments. Essentially, the political history of independent India can be divided into three phases. The first, from independence to 1985, was mainly dominated by the Congress Party. The second, from 1985 to 2014, with coalition governments, mostly led by Congress or the BJP. And the third from 2014, where the BJP emerged as the dominant force. It is a story of inverse proportion. What May 31, 2022 means is that India has found a new natural party of government.

Ajit Datta is an author and political commentator. He is the author of the book “Himanta Biswa Sarma: From Boy Wonder to CM”. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not represent the position of this publication.

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