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Home›Elections›The predictable presidential election in Iran

The predictable presidential election in Iran

By Robin S. Hill
June 18, 2021
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Here is today’s one Foreign police in short: Iran holds its presidential election, Israeli airstrikes in Gaza resume, and the North Korean leader Kim jong un says the country is ready for “dialogue and confrontation” with the United States.

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Here is today’s one Foreign police in short: Iran holds its presidential election, Israeli airstrikes in Gaza resume, and the North Korean leader Kim jong un says the country is ready for “dialogue and confrontation” with the United States.

If you would like to receive Morning Brief in your inbox every day of the week, please sign up here.


Predictable elections in Iran

There will be a presidential election in Iran today, but it will not be a contest. Four candidates, already vetted for their ideological purity by the country’s Guardian Council, are vying for the presidency today, with one – Ebrahim Raisi, the head of the judiciary – widely expected to win.

Raisi, 60, arrives at the post with an impeccable pedigree within the Iranian hierarchy. He served as both attorney general and chief justice, and earned a spot on U.S. and European sanctions lists for his role in the death sentences of more than a thousand dissidents in 1988.

relations with Iran. The fact that the negotiations in Vienna on the relaunch of the 2015 nuclear deal and the lifting of US sanctions have not yet been completed could create a difficult start for the likely Raisi presidency. As Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran program at the Middle East Institute, wrote in Foreign police yesterday, a deal before election day would have allowed Raisi to attribute any bad results to his future predecessor, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani. Iran’s new president will not take office until August, leaving time for political cover if a deal does not meet Tehran’s expectations.

The facade falls. Iran’s unique political system does not usually leave much room for dissent, but this election seems to go even further to eliminate the risk of ideological diversity. “This year’s election is the most transparent attempt by hard-line supporters in modern Iranian history not only to disqualify their rivals, but also to completely remove their line of thought from the Iranian political landscape,” Sina Toossi, senior research analyst for the Iranian-American National Council wrote in Foreign police in May. Iran’s hardliners, Toossi wrote, feeling vindicated by the Trump presidency, are now seeking to consolidate total power.

Who would want to be the president of Iran? As Jay Mens, executive director of the Middle East and North Africa Forum, pointed out in Foreign police, the Iranian presidency has been a sort of poisoned chalice for all but one of its seven incumbents, the glaring exception being the current Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. That streak of bad luck could be about to change with the rise of Raisi, who many see as the successor to the 82-year-old leader. Unlike his predecessors, the presidency may be Raisi’s hearing for a higher post. “Rather than competing with Khamenei, he will be the perfect accomplice in Khamenei’s plan to make the Islamic Republic of Iran more ‘Islamic’ and less ‘republic’,” writes Mens.


What we are tracking today

airstrikes in Gaza. Israel bombed Gaza on Thursday night, the second time it has struck the territory since agreeing to a ceasefire with Hamas following an 11-day conflict in May. The strikes came in response to incendiary balloons launched from Gaza, itself a reaction to an Israeli far-right march through the Old City of Jerusalem deemed provocative by Palestinian groups. The IDF said it had struck “military complexes and a rocket launch site” and was ready for a “variety of scenarios, including a resumption of hostilities”.

The turmoil of DUP. North Ireland‘The Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) is seeking a new leadership after party leader Edwin Poots resigned on Thursday, just three weeks after taking office. Poots resigned from his post after party lawmakers rejected his choice to lead the region’s power-sharing executive. The unrest comes at a delicate time for Northern Ireland, as disagreements over the implementation of a Brexit deal between the UK and the EU fueled violence on the streets and drove the President American Joe Biden to deliver a rare rebuke to the British government.

North Korea. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un made his first direct comments on the Biden administration at a plenary meeting of ruling workers‘ Party‘s the central committee on Thursday, state media Korea’s Central News Agency (KCNA) reported. Kim “stressed the need to prepare for both dialogue and confrontation” with the United States, “in particular to fully prepare for the confrontation in order to protect the dignity of our state and its interests for independent development. “said KCNA. The comments come as North American envoy to the United States, Sung Kim, travels to Seoul on Saturday for three-way talks with Japanese and South Korean officials.


French regional elections. France votes Sunday in national regional elections which will be closely watched for indications of support for the far-right party of politician Marine Le Pen ahead of next year’s presidential election. Voters return for a second round on June 27.

Armenia votes. Armenians go to the polls on Sunday in early elections called by Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan in an attempt to appease months of unrest following his decision to agree to a ceasefire deal with Azerbaijan, which ceded Armenian territory. It is expected to be a tense election: A poll conducted last week showed Pashinyan’s party was neck and neck with a rival bloc led by former Armenian President Robert Kocharyan. In a March poll, more than 40% of those polled said they would not vote.

A Biden-Xi summit? The White House is considering talks between Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping, US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said Thursday. “It could be a phone call. It could be a meeting on the sidelines of another international summit. It could be something else, ”Sullivan said. Italy is hosting the G-20 summit in October, which could serve as a forum for discussion.


A Chinese scholar has been suspended by his university after appearing to defend polygamy on his private social media account in a case that has divided public opinion. Bao Yinan of the East China University of Political Science and Law in Shanghai said the Chinese authorities “should give university professors special treatment, for example by allowing them to have multiple spouses and provide them with permanent grants ”. Bao then deleted the post, an action he said was due to pressure from the university.

Bao is just the latest academic this month to advocate for unorthodox relationship arrangements. In his regular column on Weibo, Yew-Kwang Ng, professor of economics at Shanghai Fudan University, argued for polyandry – or multiple men sharing the same wife – as a solution to the imbalanced male-to-female ratio of China.



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