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Home›Elections›Uncertainty abounds as Missouri prepares for 2024 presidential caucuses | Elections

Uncertainty abounds as Missouri prepares for 2024 presidential caucuses | Elections

By Robin S. Hill
July 23, 2022
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Voters in Missouri will face something unusual when it comes time to nominate their party’s presidential candidates in 2024. Gone are the days of arriving at a polling place in a primary election and voting in private.

Missouri’s major parties have typically held caucuses in each county after primaries during presidential election years. Caucuses were used to select delegates for party nominating conventions. Going forward, the caucuses will be the only way for the public to participate in the nomination of presidential candidates, although the details of how they will operate in 2024 are yet to be determined by state parties.

“I don’t think most Missourians have a clue that this is happening, that this is what they’re going to face in 2024,” political scientist Peverill Squire said, “because it will leave for most most Missourians outside of delegate selection. This is something that will likely come as a shock to them.

Caucuses generally have lower turnout among the electorate and greater involvement from party activists, Squire said. In 2016, when the two parties saw stiff competition for presidential nominations, turnouts in caucus states were consistently lower than standard primary states, according to a tally by the United States Election Project.

Missouri’s primary turnout that year was 34.8%, for example. In the Iowa caucuses, the turnout was 15.7%.

Caucuses require a longer engagement than traditional voting. They typically last for hours rather than the few minutes it takes most voters to vote at the polls. Critics say caucuses can disenfranchise working-class voters.

“This is a continuation of the erosion of voting rights put forth by Republicans,” Dunn said.

The legislation was included in a larger Election Law Amendment Bill. House Bill 1878 also requires voters to show photo identification at the ballot box, prohibits private donations at offices of authorities that administer local elections, and mandates the use of paper ballots. The bill passed the House on a 97-47 vote, with a majority of Republicans voting yes.

The removal of primary preference was added to the bill at the end of the legislative session. Squire thinks the measure should have been the subject of greater public debate.

“I think if (the General Assembly) really wanted to prosecute him, he probably should have gotten more time and attention, probably more consideration,” Squire said.

Dropping the preferential primary should save the state about $6 million to $9 million, said JoDonn Chaney, communications director for Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft, because political parties will run caucuses instead of local electoral authorities. Cost-benefit is one of the reasons proponents support change.

Ashcroft supported the legislation, which included many election changes he touted because the previous primary preference was not binding, but the state still paid to run the election. Voters voted, but the candidate was ultimately chosen by party caucus delegates.

“Why is Secretary Ashcroft supporting this because he doesn’t want an election where your voice doesn’t matter,” Chaney said.

The results of the preference primary over the years have always matched the votes of national convention delegates.

Danette Proctor, chair of the Greene County Republican Central Committee, helped lead the Greene County caucus that year. She said it started around 8 a.m. and continued until about 4 p.m.

“They are very labor intensive,” Proctor said. “They can get very risky.”

Proctor supports dropping primary preference because of the cost-benefit, but she recognizes the great commitment that caucuses demand from those who participate.

In 2012, entrants were required to sign on as a “strong and staunch Republican,” Proctor said. Until now, however, the state did not require voters to register as a member of a political party. Under HB 1878 they will have to do so or declare themselves unaffiliated. The provision will begin at the beginning of 2023.

The fact that Missouri has never asked voters to declare their party affiliation is a source of uncertainty surrounding future caucuses, Squire said. In the old Missouri caucuses, party affiliation was self-appointed upon signing.

“There is no natural list of Democratic, Republican, or minor-party membership that caucus organizers can use to determine who should be eligible to participate,” Squire said.

Nor is there a single way to administer caucuses. In Iowa, for example, the parties proceed differently. The Iowa Democratic Party caucus is a two-step process. People log in, and then there’s a countdown in the first round. Any candidate that fails to gain the support of at least 15% of the participants is considered non-viable. Voters can then redistribute their support to a second choice.

In the meantime, there can be different modes of persuasion and debate, Squire said. For example, supporters of viable candidates can recruit supporters of non-viable candidates.

The Iowa Republican Party does not use a system in which attendees vote, but can hear speeches from candidates and supporters first, which extends the time spent at the venue, Squire said.

But in Missouri, many leaders say the details for 2024 are murky.

“You know, there’s just a lot of uncertainty about what it’s going to look like, how it’s going to work,” said Dunn, the Democratic Party’s executive director. “There are still a lot of unanswered questions about this.”

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