On Sunday, November 7, Nicaragua will hold fraudulent elections. These elections must be repudiated. President Daniel Ortega, who has taken countless steps to silence political opponents and gut the Nicaraguan electoral system, is almost assured of his re-election. The United States, our neighbors in the Western Hemisphere and dozens of other countries around the world, will not recognize this election. After Sunday’s sham, there are a number of steps the United States and others should take to ensure the dangerous regime takes its toll.

Ortega’s repressive playbook

Nicaragua is ranked as the most corrupt country in Central America. In 2020, the Nicaraguan newspaper Confidential reported that government forces were responsible for the murder of at least 300 opposition activists and jailed more than 700 political opponents. As this year’s elections approach, seven presidential candidates have been arrested and at least 29 prominent activists, journalists and human rights defenders have been jailed.

Ortega actively models its policies and actions on authoritarians. For example, in October 2020, the National Assembly of Nicaragua passed a law on “foreign agents”, modeled on a Russian law, allowing the government to monitor any organization (including human rights defenders and NGOs) that receives funds from abroad. For years Nicaragua and Russia have forged closer ties. Russia has been a key supplier of arms to the Nicaraguan military. Recently, Nicaragua authorized the construction of a Russian complex overlooking the United States Embassy in Managua. Russian support strengthens Ortega’s regime against international pressure.

Ortega consolidated his power with financial support from Venezuela. Under Hugo Chávez and Nicolás Maduro, Venezuela shipped up to half a billion dollars of oil a year to Nicaragua, a major source of government revenue. Most of the oil wealth has been channeled directly into the pockets of the Ortega family through their oil conglomerate Albanisa. While Venezuela’s current oil problems have led to a major decline in Caracas’ ability to support Ortega, the vast wealth accumulated over years of cooperation has protected the Nicaraguan regime from threats of sanctions. Ortega was also able to use this wealth to buy the loyalty of the security forces.

In 2018, after protests across the country, Ortega focused on protecting the regime against “threats” from civil society. He looked to Cuba as a model, a country well versed in eliminating dissent within its own borders. Since 2018, the number of Cuban security advisers in Nicaragua has doubled, and there have been reports of Cuban and Venezuelan intelligence officers working in Nicaraguan prisons.

Ortega’s “partnerships” with other bad actors strengthen the sustainability of his regime and pose a serious threat to the region. Any effort to punish or sanction the Nicaraguan government must recognize that Ortega does not act alone. Identifying ways to cut Ortega off from his authoritarian supporters should therefore be central to any response.

How should the United States and its allies react?

At the national level, there are a few factors responsible for Ortega’s grip on power. First: the opposition parties have long struggled to unite around a single candidate. As a result, in multiple elections since 2006, the anti-Ortega vote has been split between several candidates. Opposition parties recently issued a joint statement disavowing the “results” of Sunday’s election. Ortega’s best ally is a divided opposition, opposition groups must do their part and unite around a single candidate. The international community, national actors and voters must have a reliable figure to rally around.

Second, the Higher Council for Private Enterprise (COSEP) represents the country’s largest private sector business interests and is one of Ortega’s biggest supporters. Under the Central American Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA), the United States remains Nicaragua’s largest trading partner, and COSEP members reap the greatest benefits. The United States must suspend Nicaragua’s membership in CAFTA to undermine private sector support for Ortega. This will have a major impact on the willingness of COSEP members to support the Ortega dictatorship.

Third: The Nicaraguan military, which (along with the police) has been responsible for some of the country’s most brutal repressions, is also expected to lose access to its funding. The branch’s investment fund, Instituto de Previsión Social Militar (IPSM), is well integrated in US financial markets and should therefore be a prime target for sanctions. Without a stable source of income, Ortega’s vehicle for physical repression would be severely diminished.

Finally, the United States should be at the forefront of efforts to isolate Nicaragua within the hemisphere. Discussions have taken place, but little action has been taken, on Article 21 of the Inter-American Democratic Charter, which provides for the suspension of a country from the Organization of American States for “unconstitutional interruption of the democratic order”. Ortega’s actions are riddled with evidence of unconstitutional disruption. The suspension of the OAS would signal that the region is no longer prepared to tolerate its pantomime of democracy.

The invocation of article 21, however, should only be a stepping stone to further steps the international community can take to pressure Ortega. The efforts of the United States, Canada and the European Union (EU) to sanction certain Nicaraguan government officials have met with considerable success. The impact and durability of any pressure campaign will depend heavily on the extent to which the United States can coordinate its efforts with its allies.

Why is Nicaragua important?

Nicaragua is a small country of 6.6 million people. Some would say that the “fictitious” elections in a small, lost country are irrelevant and their impact minimal. However, these elections and Ortega’s actions have resounding repercussions in the Americas and beyond. Cuba and Venezuela, both ruled by growing despots, pay attention to how the United States treats Nicaragua. If Ortega can get away with little consequence with Sunday’s election, it will send signals to fellow authoritarians in the Americas and around the world that Nicaragua has a “successful” model for undermining democracy.

In addition, Nicaragua is moving towards a failed state and people are leaving the failed states. Its handling of the pandemic has been excruciating, drug trafficking and gang violence have been rampant, and it is consistently one of the poorest countries in Central America. Some 450,000 people of Nicaraguan descent currently live in the United States, while arrivals of Nicaraguans at the US border have reached more than 20,000 this year. More Nicaraguans will likely be forced to make the dangerous journey to our border out of fear for their lives and out of economic desperation.

The Biden-Harris administration is committed to championing democracy around the world, a great and just cause. Nicaragua is the perfect case study for them to support democracy and take important political action. The United States should reject the election and take action – in partnership with its allies – to help push Nicaragua back into the community of democracies. What happens in Nicaragua on Sunday will not stay in Nicaragua.

Daniel F. Runde is Senior Vice President and William A. Schreyer Chair in Global Analysis at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Previously, he worked for the United States Agency for International Development, the World Bank Group and in investment banking, with experience in Africa, Asia, Europe, Latin America and the Middle East.